Preakness 2011: The Star-Ledger's picks

RON RIPPEY’S PICKS

Why are there eight colts and one gelding entered among the field of 14 in the Preakness Stakes today who did not race in the Kentucky Derby? That’s simple.

Nine sharp trainers and stables realize that after the slowest run Derby since 1947, it’s a wide-open race. Indeed, this year’s crop of Triple Crown candidates is the weakest bunch in memory.

That fact offers great opportunities for the betting and rooting public. In the past 25 years, only three have won the second leg of the Triple Crown who did not compete in the Derby. The chances of a non-Derby participant winning the Preakness are greater this year.

 Let’s look closer at the selections:

ASTROLOGY (15-1) had his sights set on the Kentucky Derby before he became ill during the winter and his planned schedule working up to the Derby was thrown into a tizzy. He made his 2011 debut in the Sunland Park Derby placing second while tiring late.

He made a commendable performance in the Grade 2 Jerome at Aqueduct on a sloppy track in a race in which he smacked his head into the gate before the race, appeared to be beaten in the stretch and then came on again to place second. He clearly wasn’t ready for the 1¼ miles of the Derby.

So noted trainer Steve Asmussen pointed him toward the Preakness. After all, it is a shorter race, the colt had not been out of the money in seven career races and the smart money had never let him go off at odds of more than 5-2.

His connections, Asmussen and Stonestreet Stables, won the Preakness in 2007 with Curlin after he flopped in the Derby and with the filly Rachel Alexandra in 2009. Will history repeat?

Astrology is blessed with early speed … an advantage around the tighter turns at Pimlico … and while Post 1 was a hindrance in the Derby, his Post 1 has produced the winners in 25 percent of the races this year at the Maryland track of 1 mile and 70 yards or longer.

Add in Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith, the ability to stalk what will be a faster pace than the Derby and a 15-1 morning line winner is possible and maybe probable.

MUCHO MACHO MAN (6-1) may have been the best horse in the Derby. He went five wide against slow fractions, drifted out and still held on for third within three lengths of the winner. He has worked out the best of the field before the race this week and has been dramatically improving since placing third in the Florida Derby when a shoe fell off at the start and he still placed third as the betting favorite.

Interestingly, the Kathy Ritvo-trained colt didn’t lose much ground in the fast final quarter mile of the Derby after chasing slow fractions. He may be the one to beat.

ANIMAL KINGDOM (2-1) got a perfect ride from substitute rider Johnny Velazquez (after Robby Albarado was hurt before the race) knifing through traffic before going six wide to win the Kentucky Derby going away. It was his first race on dirt. His final quarter mile was exceptionally fast, all the more impressive by the fact the front runners were crawling.

DANCE CITY (12-1), also a newcomer after skipping the Derby, would be a throw out by professional handicappers being sired by sprint speedster City Zip. However, leading trainer Todd Pletcher insists the colt’s stamina will come from his mother’s side, and he has the speed to be a serious contender.

His downside, however, is that he has been a bad actor in the gate, a fact that could diminish his chances. Despite his sometimes antics, he has not finished out of the money in four starts and picks up Jockey of the Year Ramon Dominguez to ride.

source : http://www.nj.com